EU agricultural markets gradually returning to stability
EU agricultural markets are showing positive signs of stabilising, according to the autumn 2024 edition of the short-term outlook report for EU agricultural markets, published today by the Commission.
According to the report, these positive trends are mainly due to input costs having steadily declined over the past months, as food inflation has returned to a moderate rate. The general macroeconomic and food price environment points to possible improvements in demand for agri-food products in most sectors. Nonetheless, the outlook remains subject to a high degree of uncertainty, linked to weather events, geopolitical conflicts and animal and plant diseases. Since the spring edition of the short-term outlook, adverse weather conditions have proved to be more frequent and damaging, affecting production and quality levels of major arable crops.
For example, the 2024-2025 EU cereal production is estimated at 260.9 million tonnes, around 7% below the five-year average, which represents the lowest production in the past decade. This is caused by unfavourable weather conditions affecting yields and, in part, by a reduction in cultivated area due to, among other things, excessive rain disrupting planting. The most affected crops are soft wheat and maize, while oats, barley and durum wheat production has increased. However, in 2024-2025, olive oil production is expected to return to average levels at 2 million tonnes, following two years of low production and record prices. EU milk supply is forecast to increase marginally in 2025 and EU cheese production could further increase in 2025, as exports of EU cheese could benefit from competitive prices. EU pigmeat production is expected to slightly decrease by 0.5% in 2024, and 0.2% in 2025. But the EU poultry sector is witnessing rather good market prospects in 2024, with a 4% growth in production and a 3% increase in exports.
