A security crisis in the Indo-Pacific would severely affect European interests. To play a constructive role in upholding peace and security in the region, however, the EU needs to address its internal divisions.
In 2021, the EU adopted an Indo-Pacific strategy, designed to promote an open and rules-based regional security architecture in the Indo-Pacific region. In the strategy, the EU also outlined its efforts to step up its presence there. Implementation of the strategy, however, largely depends on the member-states. France, Germany, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and Lithuania have each published Indo-Pacific strategies or guidelines. While the member-states understand that Europe’s security is influenced by what happens in the region, they have different ideas on how to contribute to its stability and what to do if a crisis erupts. They need to develop a more unified approach.
The EU’s strategy for the Indo-Pacific defines the region as stretching from the east coast of Africa to the Pacific Island States. This huge area contains a number of potential conflicts. One hot spot that is often cited as a possible trigger for war between China and the US is Taiwan, which is regarded by China as a rebellious province but for which the US is legally obliged to provide adequate defence. But Taiwan is far from the only potential hot spot that could affect the EU’s interests. Tensions also run high in the South China Sea, where various states, including China, have competing territorial claims. North Korea’s ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programmes continue, raising concerns both in the country’s immediate neighbourhood and globally. While the East China Sea is not as hotly contested as the South China Sea, China and Japan also have competing territorial claims there. The border disputes between China and India could also spark a conflict. Additionally, there are tensions in the region that do not involve China, such as the longstanding enmity between India and Pakistan. Finally, the possibility of an accident should not be ruled out. An unplanned collision between two ships from mutually hostile countries, for example, could quickly escalate into a conflict, especially as the waters of the Indo-Pacific become increasingly crowded.
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About the author
Christina Keßler is the Clara Marina O’Donnell fellow (2023-24). She focuses on European foreign and security policy as well as China and the Indo-Pacific region.