Summary
- Europeans often misunderstand Brazil, either assuming it should be an eager supporter of all Western initiatives or believing it has already aligned with an anti-Western bloc led by China and Russia. Both assumptions are wrong.
- In reality, Brazil enjoys living in an “à la carte world”, positioning itself as a key middle power in a multipolar landscape, as evidenced by its membership of both the G20 and BRICS, alongside a dominating regional role.
- However, growing geopolitical competition between the US and China, along with an increasingly hostile Russia, is narrowing the space for Brazil’s non-alignment. Donald Trump’s re-election will only complicate the matter further.
- Brazil’s foreign policy, which historically exhibited a strong sense of continuity, is also increasingly influenced by domestic political polarisation.
- Europe has strong cards to position itself as Brazil’s much-needed partner for decades to come, especially given their shared interest in promoting global multilateral cooperation. But first it must respect Brazil’s own needs and aspirations.
Introduction
Europeans are looking for friends. As the global order fragments and reorders amid escalating US-China tensions, the rise of assertive “middle powers,” and growing scepticism toward the international rules-based system, Europe finds itself increasingly isolated in the global south. To secure its position and avoid being drawn into a new cold war dynamic between Washington and Beijing (which will likely be exacerbated by Donald Trump’s re-election to the White House), Europe must balance its strong transatlantic alliance with the building of new partnerships with emerging powers, particularly those shaping this new reality.
European policymakers are only too aware of this. The last couple of years have seen a flurry of outreach efforts aimed at diversifying the European Union’s relationships and dependencies on an array of topics, from climate to energy and technology. As part of these efforts, Latin America and the Caribbean, a region historically underappreciated by the EU, has come into the spotlight. Brazil stands out as a prime candidate for enhanced cooperation, as the largest economy and arguably the only true middle power in the region, having both the ambition and capacity to influence the global order.
Yet the EU-Brazil relationship faces significant challenges. Despite being the country’s leading investor and second-largest trade partner, the EU has frequently been frustrated by Brazil’s foreign policy choices, particularly its presence in BRICS and its peace diplomacy on Ukraine. Rather than a partner fully aligned with its vision of global order, the EU often finds in Brazil a middle power that challenges Western-centric multilateralism, favours multipolarity, and – like many countries in the region – is well versed in strategic hedging between the United States and China to further its interests and autonomy.
About the author:
Carla Hobbs is the deputy director of the European Power programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
José Ignacio Torreblanca is a senior policy fellow and head of the Madrid office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a position he has held since the launch of ECFR across Europe in 2007.
Pawel Zerka is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.