One of the big surprises of the June 2024 European Parliamentary elections occurred in the Republic of Cyprus, where a 24-year-old YouTuber and social media influencer, Fidias Panayiotou, won a seat running as an independent having secured over 19 percent of the vote. Whereas the vast majority of polls had predicted the rise of the radical right National People’s Front Party (ELAM) in Cyprus along with other far-right parties in Europe, Panayiotou’s victory and overall vote tally was unforeseen. His win came at the expense of the left-wing Progressive Party of the Working People (AKEL), dashing the hopes for the re-election of Turkish Cypriot MEP Niyazi Kızılyürek, whose 2019 election to the European Parliament was seen as a milestone for bi-communal relations in divided Cyprus. Kızılyürek’s defeat highlights the persistent difficulties in achieving greater political integration and representation for Turkish Cypriots within the EU framework. This underscores the urgent need for inclusive dialogue, economic integration, and proactive measures to address Cyprus’s unique challenges, aiming to foster a more cooperative and resilient future for the island.
Despite significant gains for far-right parties in France and Germany in the June 2024 European Parliament elections, European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared victory on behalf of the European People’s Party group (EPP), maintaining that the “centre is holding.” The results from the Republic of Cyprus (RoC), which has a total of six seats allocated in the European Parliament, superficially support her claim, as the centre-right Democratic Rally (DISY) successfully defended its two seats in the European Parliament for the EPP, securing 24.78 percent of the vote, given the small number of seats allocated to Cyprus. Echoing von der Leyen, Annita Demetriou, President of the RoC House of Representatives and President of DISY, celebrated the party’s first-place finish in the European elections, emphasising its resilience having recovered from a 2023 presidential elections crisis and a potential split. Although DISY secured top spot, its ratings significantly dropped compared to previous European elections (29.02 percent) and the 2021 parliamentary elections (27.8 percent). In the municipal elections held concurrently with the European Parliament elections, the results were dire for DISY. The party lost strongholds like Nicosia and failed to secure mayoral victories in Limassol and Larnaca.
The overall picture was further complicated by the rise of ‘anti-politics’, where 24‑year-old independent social media influencer, Fidias Panayiotou, won a seat as an independent, coming within four percentage points of overtaking DISY.
Panayiotou’s success came at the expense of the Progressive Party of the Working People (AKEL), despite opinion poll data suggesting that AKEL would retain its two MEPs. AKEL’s loss of one of its two seats ended any hopes for the re-election of Niyazi Kızılyürek, the Turkish Cypriot MEP elected in 2019. The result puts a dent in efforts to kickstart stalled peace talks regarding the Cyprus issue. It also raises questions regarding the EU’s overall strategy for integrating the Turkish Cypriot community.
The pre-elections landscape
Public dissatisfaction with the current government and internal party conflicts complicated predictions for the 2024 European Parliament elections. Immigration had become a key issue, particularly due to perceived EU failures in implementing a unified policy supporting frontline states like Cyprus. President Nikos Christodoulides’ government, supported by a coalition including the Democratic Party (DIKO) and the EDEK Socialist Party (EDEK), was sensitive to these parties’ relative decline, with potential implications for the coalition’s stability and the government’s mandate.
The main concern was the potential impact of the National People’s Front Party (ELAM) securing representation in the European Parliament, building on its RoC parliament seats. Any progress by ELAM in forming a broader opposition alliance with DISY could destabilise Christodoulides’ coalition. ELAM’s anti-migration stance introduced a challenging dynamic into Cyprus’s traditional political landscape. At the EU level, ELAM joins the European and Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), including Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, over the Identity and Democracy (ID) group. Given the overall European elections results, the political dialogue between Ursula von der Leyen and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni may also affect EPP-ECR relations within the European Parliament, as von der Leyen seeks re-election as European Commission president.
This alignment, along with ELAM’s efforts to distance itself from the Greek neo-Nazi Golden Dawn Party, was seen as a strategy to buffer against potential bans or exclusions from future coalitions.
Potential alliances, whether formal or issue-based, both within Cyprus and at the European level, could amplify ELAM’s influence and enable it to advocate for policies aligned with its anti-immigration and potentially Eurosceptic stance. Such developments could further complicate the EU’s efforts to implement cohesive and inclusive policies, particularly in areas related to migration and asylum. In the context of the Cyprus issue, this could certainly impact the already complex relations between the EU and Turkey.
Before the 2024 European Parliamentary elections, EU leaders focused on increasing voter turnout and addressing the rise of far-right parties. In April 2024, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola visited Cyprus, warning voters “not to take the EU for granted” and urged citizens to vote and support the EU’s role in civil rights and democracy. She also highlighted recent EU accomplishments, including a new asylum and migration deal. Metsola’s visit coincided with a surge in Syrian refugees arriving from Lebanon. In May, European Commission President von der Leyen announced a €1 billion aid package to Lebanon to curb refugee flows. Both Metsola and von der Leyen reaffirmed the EU’s commitment to a bizonal, bicommunal federation for Cyprus, rejecting any two-state solution. The Turkish side set conditions for peace talks, including recognition of Turkish Cypriot sovereign equality and a six-month mandate for UN envoy, María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar.
About the author:
Prof. Erol Kaymak’s focus at SWP is the Cyprus Problem, Conflict Resolution and Turkey-EU relations.