Political trends in Germany are always of high importance in European Parliament elections as the country elects the largest number of MEPs. Ann-Kathrin Reinl and Stefan Wallaschek write that Eurosceptic parties look set to make gains in Germany, which could have significant implications for the balance of power in the European Parliament.
This article is part of a series on the 2024 European Parliament elections. The EUROPP blog will also be co-hosting a panel discussion on the elections at LSE on 6 June.
Given the 2019 European Parliament elections occurred prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the situation ahead of this year’s election differs significantly.
In the 2019 European Parliament election in Germany, over 60% of voters decided to cast a ballot. The CDU/CSU and SPD experienced notable losses in seats, while the Greens, and – to some extent the AfD – emerged as election winners. This time around, polls indicate growing support for the Eurosceptic camp in Germany and across the EU, which may significantly alter the political landscape of the European Parliament and future EU politics.
Germany’s public mood
After news broke that several radical right-wing political actors (among them AfD politicians) met to plan “a mass deportation of non-Germans”, hundreds of anti-AfD demonstrations with upwards of 100,000 participants took place across Germany in the first months of 2024.
In addition, and almost simultaneously, farmers rallied quite successfully against proposed political reforms affecting the agricultural sector. Their protests occasionally resulted in the paralysis of entire cities, adding to the dynamic landscape of civic engagement unfolding across Germany.
Hence, against the background of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the Israel-Palestine conflict, the political landscape is exceptionally heated in Germany right now. On top of that, the traffic light coalition government is highly unpopular and appears lost in internal quarrels.
Innovations for the 2024 European Parliament election
Two major innovations can be identified for Germany and the upcoming European Parliament election. Firstly, the voting age will be lowered to 16, which means that around 1.5 million of the 5 million first-time voters will be 16 and 17-year-olds who will have the opportunity to cast their vote. Lowering the voting age could have significant implications given younger voters usually tend to favour liberal, green and left-wing parties. Yet, young people are also the main user group of social media and the AfD is currently trying to target them on TikTok.
Secondly, there is the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, which launched at the beginning of the year. This newly established party bridges economic left and cultural right positions. It is expected to divert voters from the Left party as well as the AfD, particularly in East Germany.
Relevant issues for the German electorate
As in 2019, migration and asylum are important issues for German voters ahead of the European Parliament election, prompting political parties to address these concerns. For instance, the European People’s Party, whose lead candidate is the current President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has made migration and asylum policies a top priority in their campaign – to the chagrin of political forces in the European Parliament that see the Green New Deal, which von der Leyen initiated in 2019, falling from the agenda.
Otherwise, EU defence and security policies have further spurred political debates. For instance, in a recent poll, 59 percent of German citizens indicated they would support a joint army between EU member states (up 6 percent in comparison to June 2023). The focus on defence, security and migration policies plays into the hands of right-wing actors because those parties are usually perceived as being the most competent in these policy areas.
This means that left-wing parties have to either stress their core political issues such as social justice and climate issues to the electorate – which are, according to a Eurobarometer survey from autumn 2023, in fact relevant issues for German citizens – or campaign on security and migration issues as well because they may perceive these topics to be valence issues. According to the same Eurobarometer survey, most respondents in Germany reported that their country’s EU membership is a good thing. This shows that most voters in Germany do stand behind the Union and its values and the pro-EU camp needs to act on this potential.
Losses for the governing parties, gains for Eurosceptic parties
The latest forecasts suggest the conservative CDU/CSU (EPP group) will be the strongest party in the European Parliament election, with around 30%, followed by the far-right AfD party (ID group) with around 18%. The polls predict the governing parties SPD (S&D Group; 16%) and the Greens (Greens Group; 12%) will finish behind these two parties.
The third governing party – the liberal FDP (Renew Group) – is expected to receive only 4% of the votes. The radical Left party (GUE/NGL Group) will also be weakly represented in the next European Parliament, with an expected 3% share of the vote. In contrast, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance is currently predicted to receive 6% of the vote, which is similar to the AfD’s first European Parliament election in 2014.
Implications for upcoming state elections
From a domestic point of view, the European Parliament election will serve as an early indicator for the upcoming state elections in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia, which are slated for autumn 2024.
It is expected that the AfD will remain a strong presence, if not strengthen its position further, and that the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance will enter these state parliaments. This would not only bolster the influence of both parties in the respective state parliaments but could also – given that the AfD could enter a regional government – affect the composition of the Bundesrat, Germany’s second chamber of parliament.
Implications for EU policies
From an EU point of view, it will be crucial to closely monitor the electoral outcome in Germany as the country sends the most MEPs to the European Parliament (96 in total). The rise of the AfD might therefore also foster a rise of the radical right camp in the European Parliament. In addition, on the intergovernmental stage, Germany holds a pivotal role for the future of the EU.
Thus, attention must be paid to how democratic parties in Germany respond to the escalating influence of Eurosceptic and anti-democratic forces after the European Parliament election. Will they forge ahead on a unified democratic path towards a cohesive Europe, or will they veer towards aligning with the Eurosceptic camp, thereby rejecting a vision of a stronger transnational community? In times of turbulence, such political uncertainty has the potential to undermine the strength of the EU – both domestically and on the international stage.
About the Authors
Ann-Kathrin Reinl is a Max Weber Fellow at the European University Institute.
Stefan Wallaschek is Principal Investigator of the research project “gender policy and (anti-)gender discourses – between progress and regression” at the Interdisciplinary Centre for European Studies, Europa-Universität Flensburg.