Summary
- As Russia’s war on Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, the European Parliament and US presidential elections are also on the horizon. Against this backdrop, Vladimir Putin is banking on war fatigue in the West to help achieve a Russian victory.
- European public opinion can inform Europe’s leaders about how best to make the case to continue support for Ukraine in this difficult environment.
- Europeans seem pessimistic about Ukraine’s chances of winning the war, while a plurality think it will end in some kind of settlement. But most Europeans are not in the mood for appeasement either.
- They would be disappointed if Donald Trump were to be re-elected, and many believe his victory could also be a win for Putin. In most member states, a plurality would want Europe to maintain its current support or increase it in the event of the US scaling down its aid.
- Leaders in Ukraine and Europe need to adjust their language and define the meaning of a ‘durable peace’ to prevent Putin taking advantage of war fatigue.
Introduction
Wars play out on the battlefield but often end at the ballot box. From the French campaign in Algeria to the United States’ war in Vietnam, it was a collapse in public support as much as military setbacks that pushed the participants to settle.
As Russia’s war on Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, two major elections are also on the horizon. Europeans will participate in only one of these – the European Parliament election in June; they have no control over the other – the US presidential election in November. Yet, the outcomes of both will have a crucial impact on Europe’s geopolitics. Projections of what will happen in these elections could impact on both Moscow’s and Kyiv’s military strategies. Dynamics on the battlefield will likely influence the votes.
Vladimir Putin is banking on war fatigue in the West to achieve a Russian victory. An ideal scenario for him would be a second Trump administration ending US support for Kyiv, and European interest in the war petering out. It would play into his hands if Ukraine turned into another element of the European culture wars ahead of the election in June, with anti-Europeans opposing continued support for Kyiv and pro-Europeans keen on maintaining it.
This paper takes stock of the current state of European public opinion on the war in Ukraine. It draws on the results of a poll ECFR commissioned in January 2024 in 12 European countries (Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden). Given the mixed picture this analysis reveals, it then puts forward a strategy for how leaders can best make the case to continue European support for Kyiv.
On the one hand, Europeans seem pessimistic about Ukraine’s chances of winning the war, and most predict it will end in some kind of settlement. On the other hand, most Europeans are not in the mood for appeasement either. They are also less than pleased about the prospect of Donald Trump’s re-election – and many think his victory could also be a win for Putin.
Leaders in Ukraine and their allies need to find a new way of making the case to continue public support for Ukraine. They should root this in a reality in which Europeans do not want Russia to win, but are not feeling particularly heroic either. In the event of a Trump victory in November, it will be vital for Ukrainians and their European allies to develop a narrative that prevents Trump – and Putin – from posing as the ‘party of peace’ in a conflict whose outcome is still far from decided. The battle to frame the meaning of a ‘durable peace’ will thus be crucial.
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About the authors:
Ivan Krastev chairs the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia and is a permanent fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences, IWM Vienna. He is a founding board member of ECFR, a member of Open Society Foundations’ global advisory board, a contributing opinion writer for the New York Times, and the author of the widely acclaimed book “After Europe”.
Mark Leonard is co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the first pan-European think–tank. He is also the current Henry A Kissinger chair in foreign policy and international relations at the US Library of Congress, Washington DC. His topics of focus include geopolitics and geoeconomics, China, EU politics and institutions.